Also a boggling thing that it’s a great company that has underperformed a long time. I think for a lot of investors they can’t decide on whether the AirBnB experience is an experience that will be there to stay in the future compared to hotels which has been around forever. It’s the usual fear with any “new” behaviour change although ABNB has been around a long time. A hedge fund manager friend of mine had the same thing. Just don’t know how to think of the whether the behaviour or experience of an AirBnB will continue to be the new normal twenty years from now. I loved your write up. I like seeing all sides to an investment and absolutely enjoyed it. I’m in a similar writing niche to you so would love to support one another!
Thank you so much Hariharan, I love to tell the investment case with pictures!
Yes I also noticed that a big part of the older generation is quite skeptical on the concept as they prefer hotels. Nothing wrong with that, I think it is just another experience more suited for more adventorous people and families.
Airbnb has already incorporated hotels in the offering, so I don't see any real problem until people enjoy the experience in app and the brand remains strong.
I think actually it’s going to be worth a trip running a few models and analysis on this again. Thanks to your insights you’ve inspired me to re analyse this and revisit this case for both a bull and base case. Humility is so important in this business. I’m honestly looking forward to your next article. Thanks for supporting each other. I’ll re visit this firm and let you know what I think again! I’m a subscriber haha.
Nice writeup on Airbnb, I completely agree with your bullish thesis. I am invested in ABNB since 2022 and think the price is still fair - even after the +50% surge since then.
From a perspective more focused on consumer behavior, Airbnb has moved absolutely in line with the expectations of consumers and the trends most interesting to them: it has nurtured a constant relationship with people who were looking for a specific type of experience, broadened the pool of options on its platform, reduced friction for bookings and, finally (fundamentally) it has built increasingly new marketing initiatives and striving to create a communication identity that is increasingly appreciated today. This is also reflected in the results you talked about in this piece which I appreciated very much.
I've been a customer for almost 10y and I really saw the evolution of the platform. With other platforms you just get a service, with Airbnb I feel I get an experience.
Great article, thanks! I've been in since under $100, it seemed like a complete no brainer. I hope they continue to perform!
Thanks to you for reading Nicholas, glad you enjoyed it.
I clearly remember those days everybody was hating also on X... Compliments for the entry!
Thanks Arny! Appreciate all your hard work on Palantir, a must read for me.
Extremely valuable analysis, thank you Arny Trezzi !
Thank you so much Lidia, glad you found it interesting!
Also a boggling thing that it’s a great company that has underperformed a long time. I think for a lot of investors they can’t decide on whether the AirBnB experience is an experience that will be there to stay in the future compared to hotels which has been around forever. It’s the usual fear with any “new” behaviour change although ABNB has been around a long time. A hedge fund manager friend of mine had the same thing. Just don’t know how to think of the whether the behaviour or experience of an AirBnB will continue to be the new normal twenty years from now. I loved your write up. I like seeing all sides to an investment and absolutely enjoyed it. I’m in a similar writing niche to you so would love to support one another!
Thank you so much Hariharan, I love to tell the investment case with pictures!
Yes I also noticed that a big part of the older generation is quite skeptical on the concept as they prefer hotels. Nothing wrong with that, I think it is just another experience more suited for more adventorous people and families.
Airbnb has already incorporated hotels in the offering, so I don't see any real problem until people enjoy the experience in app and the brand remains strong.
We will have a better taste with the Olympiads.
I think actually it’s going to be worth a trip running a few models and analysis on this again. Thanks to your insights you’ve inspired me to re analyse this and revisit this case for both a bull and base case. Humility is so important in this business. I’m honestly looking forward to your next article. Thanks for supporting each other. I’ll re visit this firm and let you know what I think again! I’m a subscriber haha.
My pleasure. Keep me posted!
Nice writeup on Airbnb, I completely agree with your bullish thesis. I am invested in ABNB since 2022 and think the price is still fair - even after the +50% surge since then.
Thank you Stefan for your feedback.
The fundamentals seem to improve more than the price. Love this.
From a perspective more focused on consumer behavior, Airbnb has moved absolutely in line with the expectations of consumers and the trends most interesting to them: it has nurtured a constant relationship with people who were looking for a specific type of experience, broadened the pool of options on its platform, reduced friction for bookings and, finally (fundamentally) it has built increasingly new marketing initiatives and striving to create a communication identity that is increasingly appreciated today. This is also reflected in the results you talked about in this piece which I appreciated very much.
Thank you for your amazing comment Riccardo.
I've been a customer for almost 10y and I really saw the evolution of the platform. With other platforms you just get a service, with Airbnb I feel I get an experience.
👉 The entity of this buyback should help provide a floor to the stock and offset the impact of share dilution. 👈 You mean dilution from RSU’s, right?
Yes, the stock compensation which is mostly given as RSU is still relatively high.
Seems a bit odd for a company to issue high levels of RSU’s and then immediately buy back the stock, though ))
Agreed, but the priority for the company is to align employees. RSU work better than just salary.
Given the relatively low valuation it makes absolute sense to buyback imo!
Great take, thank you!
1$ for big RSU is fair enough, cheers!